Sonoma County Luxury Market Overview | June 2026

Healthier, But Still Selective

The Sonoma County luxury market remains in buyer’s market territory, but the May data shows a market that is healthier, more active, and less sluggish than it was one year ago.

Inventory is still elevated, but it is lower than last May. Buyer activity has improved. Turnover is stronger. Homes that are selling are achieving better results relative to their original list price. And the properties that are connecting with buyers are moving much faster than they did a year ago.

That does not mean the luxury market has suddenly shifted in favor of sellers.

The better read is more nuanced: the market is improving, but it remains selective. Buyers are active, but they are not chasing every listing. They are responding to homes that feel well-priced, well-presented, and clearly aligned with today’s market expectations.

This monthly update looks at the Sonoma County luxury market using a rolling 12-month trend analysis, comparing the current 12-month period with the previous 12-month period to better understand the direction of the market over time.

This Month’s Key Takeaways

The luxury market is healthier than it was last year, but it is still not broadly seller-favorable.

May delivered several encouraging signs. Homes for sale were down approximately 19% compared with May 2025. Closed sales increased. Turnover improved. The median sold price was higher. The Sale-to-Original-Price Ratio strengthened to 98%. Average days on market fell sharply from 92 days last May to 54 days this May.

Those are meaningful improvements.

At the same time, Months of Inventory remained at 7.3 months, which keeps the luxury segment in buyer’s market territory. Under the framework I use, 0–3 months represents a seller’s market, 4–6 months is considered balanced, and anything above 6 months remains buyer-favorable.

So while the market is in better condition than it was a year ago, sellers still need to be thoughtful. The data supports optimism, but it does not support aggressive overpricing.

The luxury homes most likely to perform well are the ones that enter the market with a clear strategy around pricing, preparation, presentation, and positioning.

May 2026 Market Snapshot

In May, the Sonoma County luxury market posted several important numbers.

Homes for sale reached 235, down from 289 in May 2025. That represents an approximate 19% year-over-year decline and suggests that inventory pressure has eased compared with last year.

New listings came in at 44, down from 51 last May. That means new luxury supply was lighter than it was a year ago, helping prevent inventory from building even more aggressively.

Closed sales rose to 32, compared with 28 in May 2025. That is a modest but important improvement in buyer activity.

Months of Inventory came in at 7.3 months, down significantly from 10.3 months last year. This is still above the 6-month threshold, so the market remains buyer-leaning, but the improvement from last year is meaningful.

The Turnover Rate increased to 13.6%, up from 9.7% last May. In simple terms, a larger share of available homes sold during the month, which points to healthier buyer engagement.

The Sale-to-Original-Price Ratio improved to 98%, compared with 93% last year. That is one of the more encouraging signals in the May data because it suggests that the homes that are selling are achieving much stronger results relative to their original asking price.

Average days on market fell to 54 days, down from 92 days last May. That is a substantial improvement and shows that well-positioned homes are moving more quickly.

The median sold price reached $2.793 million, up from $2.498 million in May 2025, an increase of approximately 12% year over year.

Taken together, the May snapshot points to a luxury market that is still buyer-leaning, but clearly healthier than it was one year ago.

Supply: Still Elevated, But Not Worsening

Supply remains meaningful, but the market is carrying less inventory than it did last year.

In May, there were 235 luxury homes for sale in Sonoma County, compared with 289 in May 2025. That year-over-year decline matters because one of the key challenges in the luxury segment has been elevated inventory. Buyers have had choices, and when buyers have choices, sellers need to compete more carefully on price, condition, design, location, and perceived value.

Looking at the rolling 12-month data, the average number of homes for sale was approximately 207 in the current period, compared with 209 in the previous 12-month period. That tells us overall supply was essentially flat to slightly lower.

New listing activity was also slightly lower. The current 12-month period saw 515 new luxury listings, compared with 523 in the previous period.

This does not mean inventory is tight. It is not. Buyers still have options, and the market is not experiencing the kind of supply constraint that would broadly shift leverage back to sellers.

But the supply picture is no longer worsening. That is important.

The bottom line: inventory remains elevated, but it has improved compared with last year. That is helping the market feel more balanced, even though it still remains buyer-leaning.

Demand: Buyer Activity Has Strengthened

Demand is the strongest part of the current market story.

Luxury sales increased from 214 homes sold in the prior 12-month period to 280 homes sold in the current 12-month period. That represents an increase of roughly 31%.

Pending activity also improved, rising from 221 pendings to 277 pendings, an increase of approximately 25%.

That tells us buyers are not absent from the luxury market. They are active. They are writing offers. They are closing purchases. And they are engaging more than they were during the prior 12-month period.

May’s data supports that same conclusion. Closed sales increased from 28 last May to 32 this May, while the Turnover Rate rose from 9.7% to 13.6%.

The important nuance is that this is not indiscriminate demand. Buyers are not simply chasing every luxury listing because inventory has come down or because conditions have improved. They remain selective. They are still looking carefully at price, location, condition, lifestyle fit, insurance considerations, carrying costs, renovation needs, and long-term value.

The homes that are earning buyer attention are the ones that feel aligned with the market.

The bottom line: buyer activity has improved, but sellers still have to earn demand. The strongest results are going to the properties that feel compelling from the start.

Pricing: Stable Overall, Stronger in May

Pricing is one of the more nuanced parts of the current luxury market.

On a rolling 12-month basis, the median sold price was approximately $2.663 million, compared with $2.677 million in the previous 12-month period. That is essentially flat and suggests that the broader pricing trend has stabilized.

But May itself was stronger. The May median sold price reached $2.793 million, up approximately 12% from $2.498 million in May 2025. The Sale-to-Original-Price Ratio also improved meaningfully, rising from 93% last May to 98% this May. That is a notable improvement.

However, it is important not to overread one month of data. A stronger May does not mean the entire luxury market has broadly moved higher or that sellers have unlimited pricing power. It means that the homes that sold in May performed better than the homes that sold last May. That distinction matters.

In a selective luxury market, pricing strength often shows up first in the best-positioned properties. These are the homes that combine the right location, condition, design, presentation, and pricing strategy. Buyers may be willing to pay strong prices for those homes, but they are still cautious when a property feels overpriced or requires too much explanation.

The bottom line: the broader pricing trend is relatively stable, but May showed stronger pricing performance. That is encouraging, but it should reinforce the importance of strategic pricing rather than invite sellers to overreach.

Market Speed: The Recent Data Looks Much Better

Market speed is another area where the rolling trend and the most recent month tell slightly different stories.

On a rolling 12-month basis, average days on market increased to approximately 102 days, compared with 92 days in the prior period. That reflects the slower conditions the luxury market experienced during parts of the past year.

But May looked much better. Average days on market fell to 54 days, down from 92 days in May 2025. That is a significant improvement and one of the clearest signs that the right homes are moving faster.

This is where the difference between the broader trend and current market activity becomes especially useful.

The rolling data reminds us that luxury listings have generally been taking longer to sell. The May snapshot tells us that when a home is properly positioned, buyers are prepared to move more quickly than they were last year.

For sellers, this should be encouraging, but not misleading. Faster market speed is not automatic. It is earned through pricing accuracy, strong presentation, effective marketing, and a clear value proposition.

Homes that are well-located, move-in ready, thoughtfully prepared, and priced in line with buyer expectations can perform well. Homes that feel aspirationally priced, dated, underprepared, or difficult to compare may still sit.

The bottom line: the market is capable of moving faster, but only for homes that meet the moment.

Market Climate: Still Buyer-Leaning, But More Constructive

With 7.3 months of inventory in May, the Sonoma County luxury market remains in buyer’s market territory.

That is the technical reading. But the direction of the market is more constructive than it was one year ago. Months of Inventory declined from 10.3 months last May to 7.3 months this May. The rolling 12-month average also improved from 12.4 months to 9.1 months. That is meaningful progress.

A year ago, the luxury market was clearly softer. Buyers had more leverage, inventory was higher, and properties were generally taking longer to sell. Today, buyers still have leverage, but the market is not as one-sided. This distinction is important for both sides.

Buyers should understand that opportunity still exists, especially for homes that have been sitting, need updating, or are priced ahead of the market. But they should not assume that every strong property will linger indefinitely.

Sellers should understand that the market has improved, but it has not improved enough to ignore strategy. A buyer’s market with better demand is still a buyer’s market.

The bottom line: market conditions are more constructive, but not broadly seller-favorable. Strategy still matters.

3–6 Month Forecast

Over the next three to six months, I expect the Sonoma County luxury market to remain selective but more active than last year.

The improvement in sales, pending activity, turnover rate, and Months of Inventory suggests that buyer demand has firmed up. That should help support the market as we move through the summer months.

Inventory is likely to remain elevated, but manageable. Luxury buyers should continue to have options, which means sellers will need to compete for attention. At the same time, if buyer activity continues to improve, the market should feel healthier than it did a year ago.

Pricing is likely to remain relatively stable, with strength concentrated in the best-positioned properties. Homes that are well-prepared, well-presented, and priced with discipline should continue to attract interest. Homes that feel overpriced or poorly differentiated may face longer market times and negotiation pressure.

Market speed may continue to improve for standout properties, particularly those that are move-in ready and clearly aligned with buyer expectations. But the elevated rolling average for days on market suggests that not every listing will benefit equally.

The most likely near-term outlook is a market that rewards precision.

Sellers who are strategic should be in a better position than they were last year. Buyers who are prepared should still find opportunity, but may need to move more decisively when the right home appears.

What This Means for Buyers

Buyers still have leverage, especially on homes that have been sitting, need updating, or are priced above where the market sees value.

Inventory remains elevated enough to give buyers choices. Months of Inventory is still above the 6-month threshold. And the overall market climate continues to lean in the buyer’s favor.

But the best properties may not sit as long as they did last year.

The improvement in turnover, days on market, closed sales, and sale-to-original-price ratio suggests that well-positioned homes are seeing stronger engagement. If a home is well-priced, well-located, move-in ready, and clearly differentiated, buyers should be prepared to act decisively.

That does not mean overpaying. It means understanding value before the right property appears, so you are ready when it does.

The opportunity is still there, but the window may not feel as one-sided as it did last year.

What This Means for Sellers

Sellers should be encouraged by the May data, but disciplined in how they interpret it.

The market is healthier than it was a year ago. Buyer activity has improved. Inventory is lower. Homes are selling faster. And the properties that are selling are achieving stronger results relative to their original list price. That is good news.

But this is still not a broad seller’s market. Months of Inventory remains in buyer’s market territory, and luxury buyers are still highly selective.

For sellers, the data does not support aggressive overpricing. It supports strategic positioning.

The sellers most likely to succeed are the ones who treat pricing, preparation, presentation, and timing as part of one coordinated strategy. Luxury buyers are not just comparing square footage and asking price. They are comparing condition, design, location, setting, lifestyle, ease of ownership, and perceived value.

A home that feels compelling can perform well. A home that feels overpriced or underprepared may struggle.

Bottom Line

The Sonoma County luxury market remains buyer-leaning, but it is clearly healthier than it was one year ago.

Inventory is lower than last May. Demand is stronger. Turnover has improved. Well-positioned homes are selling faster. And the homes that are connecting with buyers are achieving stronger results relative to their original asking price.

The key is not to confuse improvement with a full market shift.

Buyers still have leverage, but the best opportunities may require more decisive action. Sellers have more reason for optimism, but still need disciplined pricing and strong preparation.

For now, the best read is this: the luxury market is moving in a healthier direction, but it remains selective. Strategy matters on both sides.

Ready to take the next step?

Whether you’re buying or selling in Sonoma County, I’m here to guide you through each stage of the process with clarity and strategy. From understanding market dynamics to structuring strong, well-positioned offers, my role is to help you move forward with confidence. Let’s talk about your goals and map out